Statistics Seminar - Orla Murphy - Modelling Extreme Rainfall Accumulation with an Application to the 2011 Richelieu River Flood
Speaker: Orla Murphy (McMaster University)
Title: Modelling Extreme Rainfall Accumulation with an Application to the 2011 Richelieu River Flood
Abstract: Temporal dependence in a univariate time series can cause a clustering effect for extremes, i.e., extreme observations do not necessarily occur in isolation. Extreme value theory can be extended to certain stationary series, but does not account for this form of dependence. We propose a model for the sum of extreme clusters called the Random Scale Model. This model is a simple extension of the standard Peaks-Over-Threshold method, where the cluster maximum is scaled by a random factor to obtain the cluster sum. Under certain conditions, the cluster maximum and random factor may be considered to be independent, which is the case in our application. We use a Bayesian approach with this model to make inference on the return period of the 2011 Richelieu River flood.