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<b>Location HH-305</b><br><br><br>Speaker: <font>A in file /1/home/ms/public_html/pro/joomla/administrator/components/com_dpcalendar/libraries/vendor/Digital-Peak/ccl/src/CCL/Content/Visitor/Html/DomBuilder.php on line 120
<b>Location HH-305</b><br><br><br>Speaker: <font>Abdel El-Shaarawi</font> (Cairo University)<br><br>Title: Water Issues and Statistical Inference<br><br>Abstract: I will discuss two case studies: one on water quality of the Niagara River and the other on water quantity for the Nile River. For the Niagara River; the problem is estimating the yearly average daily sediment Load (ADL)from Lake Erie to Niagara<br>River at Fort Erie (FE) and from the River to Lake Ontario at Niagara on the<br>Lake (NOTL). The difference between the loads for the two stations represents the<br>differential load which is likely to be attributed to the action of water flow over the<br>Niagara Falls. Several ad hoc methods are often used to estimate ADL, without<br>knowing the assumptions required for them to produce reliable estimators. Here<br>these assumptions are specified. At least two components are involved in estimating<br>ADL: water flow and sediment concentration. The flow is accurately available for<br>every day of the year but the concentration is available for only few days within the<br>year. A finite population based model is presented that predicts the concentrations<br>for the missing days conditional on the available flow and concentration data. The<br>model is then used to estimate ADL sediment for both the stations during the year<br>2010. For this year the flow is available for 365 days but the sediment concentration<br>is available for only 25 and 26 days for FE and NOTL respectively. The model is<br>used to predict the sediment concentration for the missing 340 and 339 days which<br>are combined with the flow to estimate ADL for each station and for the difference<br><br>load between the two stations.<br>For the Nile; the problem is to study the impact of constructing the Grand Ethiopian<br>Renaissance Dam (GERD) across the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia on the traditional<br>share of water for Sudan and Egypt. Millions of people in Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia<br>depend on the Blue Nile's water for agriculture, industry and domestic use. The<br>focus will be on the analysis of historical rainfall data, which is collected from more<br>than 100 sampling stations within the River's watershed on the Ethiopian Plateau.<br>The intention is to develop a model for predicting the changes in the discharge to<br>the Nile from the Blue Nile as a result of the changes in yearly rainfall yield. The<br>importance of this prediction is related to the Ethiopian management of filling the<br>huge GERD reservoir whose capacity equals more than a one year total flow of the<br>Blue Nile. The model takes into account the effects of El Ni<span><span></span></span><span>ñ</span>o and La Ni<span><span>ñ</span></span>a events<br>where the first is associated with low rainfall while the second is associated with<br>high rainfall.