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CANCELLLED Statistics Seminar - Abdel El-Shaarawi


Location HH-305

Speaker: Abdel El-Shaarawi (Cairo University)

Title: Water Issues and Statistical Inference

Abstract: I will discuss two case studies: one on water quality of the Niagara River and the other on water quantity for the Nile River. For the Niagara River; the problem is estimating the yearly average daily sediment Load (ADL)from Lake Erie to Niagara
River at Fort Erie (FE) and from the River to Lake Ontario at Niagara on the
Lake (NOTL). The diff erence between the loads for the two stations represents the
differential load which is likely to be attributed to the action of water flow over the
Niagara Falls. Several ad hoc methods are often used to estimate ADL, without
knowing the assumptions required for them to produce reliable estimators. Here
these assumptions are specified. At least two components are involved in estimating
ADL: water flow and sediment concentration. The flow is accurately available for
every day of the year but the concentration is available for only few days within the
year. A finite population based model is presented that predicts the concentrations
for the missing days conditional on the available flow and concentration data. The
model is then used to estimate ADL sediment for both the stations during the year
2010. For this year the flow is available for 365 days but the sediment concentration
is available for only 25 and 26 days for FE and NOTL respectively. The model is
used to predict the sediment concentration for the missing 340 and 339 days which
are combined with the flow to estimate ADL for each station and for the difference

load between the two stations.
For the Nile; the problem is to study the impact of constructing the Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam (GERD) across the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia on the traditional
share of water for Sudan and Egypt. Millions of people in Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia
depend on the Blue Nile's water for agriculture, industry and domestic use. The
focus will be on the analysis of historical rainfall data, which is collected from more
than 100 sampling stations within the River's watershed on the Ethiopian Plateau.
The intention is to develop a model for predicting the changes in the discharge to
the Nile from the Blue Nile as a result of the changes in yearly rainfall yield. The
importance of this prediction is related to the Ethiopian management of filling the
huge GERD reservoir whose capacity equals more than a one year total flow of the
Blue Nile. The model takes into account the effects of El Niño and La Niña events
where the first is associated with low rainfall while the second is associated with
high rainfall.
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